ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: 18.03.2022

18.03.2022 12:25 PM

New age rises: gold and Bitcoin may become new major financial instruments soon

The world is facing the largest economic and military threat in 80 years. Sanctions imposed on Russia have brought the world to the threshold of a massive economic crisis and rising fiat money inflation. The IMF is already raising alarms, confirming fears related to the redistribution of macroeconomic chains and resource supply. The global economic upheaval is a fait accompli, and we have only to wait for the end of the inertial movement to see the consequences.

New macroeconomic trends have emerged in the first weeks after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The first and most obvious is that gold is getting carte blanche from large investors around the world. The precious metal becomes the main asset to protect and capital for a long time.

Gold has become a safe-haven asset due to two key advantages. The first is the historical context. Gold's centuries-tested reputation as a safe asset has allowed the precious metal to hit the swing high at $2,000. The second advantage of gold is its relative independence from the US dollar. The USD is 67% backed by US Treasuries and 29% by mortgage-backed securities. This allows gold to remain outside of fiat market issues.

The second trend is related to growing investments in Bitcoin, and it has just begun to emerge. Investors have partly refrained from gold due to its independence from the US dollar and its reputation. Bitcoin's small age and lack of government regulation play against it. These reasons are deterrents to mass investment in BTC. However, there is an active period of accumulation and averaging of positions on Bitcoin. Stablecoin volumes are also beginning to decline, which confirms the gradual conversion of funds into the main cryptocurrency. Biden's edict will serve as a springboard for increased investment flows into BTC in the future.

It seems that the fiat sector will be retreating. As the impact of sanctions on the global economy worsens, fiat money will lose value, and deposit yields may fall. Fed policy has remained as evidenced by the rate hike to 0.5%. Given the new realities for the global economy, this level of monetary tightening will not help curb rising inflation.

Moreover, most financial instruments related to fiat assets will depreciate soon. High-risk assets and stocks are likely to lose their value, either because of sanctions or worsening inflation and investors' savings strategies. In such a scenario, gold and Bitcoin will be the trendsetters in global stock markets, but cryptocurrency has one important advantage.

Gold's historical credibility allows it to hold the lead when it comes to hedging risk, but Bitcoin is a more valuable asset due to limited issuance. Once the asset allocation period for savings instruments is over and the overall situation stabilizes, there will be the question of increasing capital to avoid stagnation and regression. If Bitcoin is legally regulated in the EU and the US by that point, investors will focus on cryptocurrencies. And even with multiple increases in gold, both physical and trading, Bitcoin will have the lead.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin showed almost no reaction to the Fed meeting results and continued to hover within the range of $32,400-$45,500. The cryptocurrency is finishing forming the triangle pattern, but it is too early to assume the probable direction for a breakout. Buying activity is still low and resistance at $42,100 is very strong now. Technical indicators reflect the price movement and show no clear bearish or bullish signals. The stochastic oscillator and the RSI are declining after the formation of a local bullish momentum and the MACD continues to move sideways for the fourth week in a row.