empty
15.05.2023 03:01 PM
Dollar: Summary and Near-Term Prospects

This image is no longer relevant

The dollar significantly strengthened in the second half of the past week, with its DXY index breaking through resistance at the 102.00 level, reaching a 5-week high at 102.54.

Today, the DXY attempted to continue its upward trajectory, primarily due to the strengthening of the dollar against the yen (which accounts for approximately 14% of the DXY), reaching an intraday high of 102.58 during the Asian trading session. As of writing, DXY futures were trading close to the 102.40 mark. To further develop the upward trend and to ensure a more confident rise of the DXY towards last year's high of 105.87, the price needs to break through at least two strong resistances at 102.75 and 103.00. We continue to adhere to a negative scenario for the dollar, and a break of support at 102.00 will confirm our assumptions about further decline of the DXY towards the "round" and psychologically important mark of 100.00.

From a technical perspective, to move into a medium-term bull market and return to a long-term upward trend, the price needs to break into the area above key resistance levels of 103.45, 103.70.

This image is no longer relevant

As for today's economic calendar regarding USD dynamics, among the scheduled events, attention should be paid to the speeches (at 12:45, 13:15, 16:30, 21:00 GMT) of the Federal Reserve leadership, which could increase volatility in dollar quotes.

Last Friday, Federal Reserve representatives Philip Jefferson and James Bullard, speaking at a monetary policy conference, stated that the U.S. Central Bank is moving in its monetary policy "in the right direction."

In their opinion, "currently, monetary policy is at the lower end of the range, which is likely restrictive enough, given the current macroeconomic state," and "inflation is still too high."

These statements suggest the possibility of a continuation of the Fed's monetary policy tightening cycle, which, in itself, is a bullish factor for the dollar. Now let's see what other representatives of the Federal Reserve leadership will say. Recall that, in the press conference following the May meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell communicated the ongoing issue of high inflationary pressure. He indicated that there was still a considerable path to traverse in order to reduce inflation, emphasizing that the current focus should be on this reduction.

As for significant macro statistics at the global market level, it will appear tomorrow at the beginning of the Asian trading session, when at 02:00 (GMT), the National Bureau of Statistics of China will publish its regular monthly report with data on the level of retail sales and industrial production volumes in the country.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Jurij Tolin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Why Are Markets Riding a Wave of Optimism? (There is a likelihood of rising oil prices and declining gold prices)

Recent events—including victorious declarations from Washington about agreements on customs tariffs with Japan and the EU—continue to support demand for risk assets. At least for now, investors are not concerned

Pati Gani 10:16 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Fed Unlikely to Send Clear Signals

While the euro and British pound show modest gains against the U.S. dollar, investors hoping for Jerome Powell to hint that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to a rate

Jakub Novak 09:54 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Market Welcomes the Truce

The final word in the U.S.–China trade negotiations is expected from Donald Trump. Until that happens, the S&P 500 has decided to take a step back—especially with key U.S. data

Marek Petkovich 09:05 2025-07-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States will all release Q2 GDP reports. It is worth noting that while

Paolo Greco 07:07 2025-07-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 30: The Pound Keeps Falling "in Sympathy"

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its decline on Monday and extended the move into Tuesday. It's worth noting that the British pound began falling earlier than the euro, already last

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 30: Beating the Fallen

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, driven by the same factors as on Monday—as we warned in advance. On Monday, it was revealed that the European

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Fed Will Remain in Wait-and-See Mode Until September

There will likely be some dovish hints, but they will probably not differ from previous statements and rhetoric by Federal Reserve officials. This is the general expectation one day before

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

Trump Will Defeat the Fed One Way or Another

Donald Trump continues to reshape the world order. The U.S. President keeps dictating terms to nearly half the world's countries—and his strategy is working so far. The trade agreement with

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

AUD/USD Ahead of a Crucial Release

On July 30, key data on inflation growth in Australia for the second quarter will be published. This release is highly significant for the AUD/USD pair, especially in the run-up

Irina Manzenko 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2

The Euro Lost the War

To be or to appear? The sharp EUR/USD rally to nearly four-year highs in early July may have looked like the eurozone's confidence in a bright future. A strong economy

Marek Petkovich 01:14 2025-07-30 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.