empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
12.02.2025 11:09 AM
Jerome Powell Fails to Impress Markets
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The wave analysis of the 4-hour SPX chart remains ambiguous. On the daily chart, a global five-wave structure is evident, extending beyond even the smallest zoom scale of the trading terminal. In simple terms, U.S. stock indices have been rising for a very long time. But as we know, trends eventually reverse.

Currently, Wave 5 within Wave 5 is still forming. The S&P 500 (#SPX) has attempted three times to break the 6,093 level, which coincides with the 200.0% Fibonacci extension of Wave 4. A correction or a series of corrective waves is likely soon. The U.S. stock market appears overheated, and more experts are warning of a potential "bubble."

A completed a-b-c-d-e corrective structure is visible. The trend from January 13 appeared to form a new five-wave impulse, with Waves 1 and 2 completed. However, Monday's decline disrupted this structure, making it unclear and unreliable. The daily chart structure is more reliable and should be prioritized. Wave analysis must be clear and straightforward—complex structures are harder to trade profitably.

The #SPX remains near record highs, with investors unwilling to sell major U.S. stocks. The uptrend started nearly two years ago, fueled by slowing U.S. inflation and expectations of Fed rate cuts. The rate-cut narrative has been in play for months. The stock market has already factored in Fed easing expectations. Further stock gains may be limited, as the Fed is still hesitant to cut rates aggressively.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate in a semi-annual hearing. His prepared remarks were published last week, but Monday's session focused on Q&A from senators.

Key messages from Powell are the following. Monetary policy is far less restrictive than before. The U.S. economy remains strong, allowing the Fed to delay rate cuts. A rapid or aggressive rate cut could hinder disinflation. A slow or minimal rate cut could weaken economic activity and employment. The Fed bases rate decisions on all incoming data. Inflation remains elevated, meaning the Fed is not ready to shift to a more dovish stance anytime soon. If the economy remains strong, restrictive policy will stay in place longer. The Fed will only resume rate cuts if the labor market weakens sharply or inflation declines significantly faster than expected.

This image is no longer relevant

General conclusions

Based on #SPX analysis, the index appears to be in the final stages of its uptrend. Short-term trading should be guided by the 6,093 level and Trump's trade policies. Trump's recent trade decisions (tariffs, import restrictions) pose risks to U.S. economic stability. Stock market bubbles continue to inflate, increasing the risk of a significant correction.

The 4-hour chart allows room for three more upward waves. However, the daily chart suggests that the rally is nearing completion. I place more trust in the daily timeframe, which signals a reversal is coming.

A clear five-wave structure is evident on the larger timeframe. Wave 5 appears to be nearing its completion. A prolonged and complex correction is likely on the horizon.

Key Principles of My Wave Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Overly complex patterns often lead to misinterpretation and unreliable trades.
  2. If market conditions are unclear, it is best to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use Stop Loss orders to manage risk effectively.
  4. Wave analysis should be combined with other technical and fundamental tools. Diverse strategies lead to more informed trading decisions.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session) The price test of 146.16 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential within a bearish
Jakub Novak
20:08 2025-04-04 +02:00
1795
Forecast
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session) The price test of 1.3077 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's further downward potential. Following recent
Jakub Novak
20:03 2025-04-04 +02:00
1420
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Stocks slide sharply as broad tariffs raise recession risk

S&P 500 US equities plunged on Thursday as President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs triggered a sharp sell-off and reignited fears of a global recession. The Dow fell by 4%
Jozef Kovach 11:14 2025-04-04 UTC+2

US stock market on April 4: SP500 and NASDAQ suffering heavy losses

As a result of yesterday's regular session, US stock indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 plummeted by 4.84%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.97%. The industrial Dow Jones
Jakub Novak 11:13 2025-04-04 UTC+2

Update on US stock market: Trump strikes at global trade with tariffs and crashes markets

S&P500 Update on April 03 Snapshot of benchmark US stock indices on Wednesday: Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500: all -2% S&P 500 at 5,535 in the range of 5,500 to 6,000
Jozef Kovach 11:57 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Stock Market on April 2: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Hit New Yearly Lows

At the close of yesterday's regular session, U.S. stock indexes ended in positive territory. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.87%, and the Dow Jones Industrial
Jakub Novak 09:13 2025-04-03 UTC+2

US markets show resilience despite tariff concerns and economic weakness

S&P 500 The US stock markets paused ahead of President Trump's anticipated tariff announcements. The major indices ended the session mixed: the Dow Jones closed flat, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%
Jozef Kovach 12:15 2025-04-02 UTC+2

Update on US stock market on April 2: SP500 and NASDAQ regain their footing before crucial event

Following yesterday's regular session, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.87%. The industrial Dow Jones dipped by 0.04%. Asian indices
Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-04-02 UTC+2

Why tariffs may trigger rally instead of crash?

The current panic in the markets may be overblown. If tomorrow's tariffs prove to be less damaging than expected, we could witness a short but sharp rebound, particularly
Anna Zotova 11:03 2025-04-01 UTC+2

US stock market: spike from strong support. Growth realistic

S&P500 Update on US stock market Snapshot of benchmark stock indices on Monday: Dow +1%, NASDAQ -0.1%, S&P 500 +0.6%, S&P 500 at 5,612 trading in a range of 5,500
Jozef Kovach 10:48 2025-04-01 UTC+2

Update on US stock market on April 1. SP500 and NASDAQ fall to new one-year low

As a result of Friday's regular session, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.14%. The industrial Dow Jones gained
Jakub Novak 08:56 2025-04-01 UTC+2

Stock market on March 31: S&P 500 and Nasdaq edge closer to yearly lows

At the close of Friday's regular trading session, US stock indices ended in negative territory. The S&P 500 fell by 1.97%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 2.70%
Jakub Novak 12:27 2025-03-31 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session)
20:03 2025-04-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
19:55 2025-04-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session)
20:08 2025-04-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – April 4th (U.S. Session)
20:00 2025-04-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
19:52 2025-04-04
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.