empty
24.03.2025 05:01 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 24th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0856 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The price rose and formed a false breakout at that level, providing a good entry point, which led to a 20-point decline. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has not changed.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Rather lackluster PMI activity data from the eurozone prevented the euro from continuing its rise against the dollar. In the second half of the day, we await US data on the manufacturing PMI, the services PMI, and the composite PMI. Speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr are also expected, which may be interpreted in favor of dollar strength. In case of strong statistics and further correction in the pair, only a false breakout around the support at 1.0806 will serve as a signal for new EUR/USD purchases, aiming to build a bullish market with a target of retesting 1.0856. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom would confirm a correct entry point for long positions, targeting 1.0905. The furthest target will be the 1.0952 area, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0806, which is more likely, the pair will likely continue correcting. In that case, sellers may push the price down to 1.0770. Only after forming a false breakout there will I consider buying the euro. I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0743, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers showed themselves, and in case of a negative market reaction to Fed officials' statements, only a false breakout near 1.0856—similar to the scenario discussed above—will allow for short positions to be opened with a target at the 1.0806 support area. A breakout and consolidation below this range would offer another opportunity for selling, with a move toward 1.0770, which on its own would represent a significant correction. The furthest target will be the 1.0743 area, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD moves higher in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.0856, buyers may trigger a new upward move. In this case, I will postpone short positions until the pair tests the next resistance at 1.0905. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful breakout. If there is no downward movement at that level either, I will consider opening short positions on a rebound from 1.0952, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) for March 11:

There was an increase in long positions and a notable reduction in shorts. Interest in buying the euro continues to grow, while sellers are rapidly exiting the market. Germany's fiscal stimulus policy and its strong support from the ECB are boosting demand for the euro. Additionally, progress in resolving the conflict in Ukraine supports the single currency. The upcoming Fed meeting may weaken the dollar even further if the regulator adopts a more dovish stance than expected. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions rose by 3,424 to 188,647, while short positions dropped by 19,772 to 175,557. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 8,097 in favor of the bulls.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which indicates a sideways market.

Note: The author considers the moving averages on the H1 chart, which differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0849 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (used to identify the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period – 50, marked in yellow on the chart; • Moving Average. Period – 30, marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9; • Bollinger Bands. Period – 20; • Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders; • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Sell
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade GBP/USD on July 11h? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Thursday Trade Review: GBP/USD, 1H Chart On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement, mirroring the EUR/USD pair. The behavior of these two major currency pairs was nearly identical

Paolo Greco 08:43 2025-07-11 UTC+2

How to Trade EUR/USD on July 11th? Simple Tips and Trade Review for Beginners

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its weak downward movement in line with the current trend. We've been saying the same thing all week because very little is changing

Paolo Greco 08:36 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for July 11th

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its moderate decline. Over the past two weeks, the British pound has depreciated by 220 points, with approximately 150 of those losses occurring

Paolo Greco 08:30 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for July 11th

EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline, completely ignoring the fundamental backdrop. As a reminder, this week Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting both

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-07-11 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on July 10th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Wednesday Trade Analysis: GBP/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also stuck in a flat movement, with very low volatility. There were virtually no price movements during

Paolo Greco 08:56 2025-07-10 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on July 10th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Wednesday Trade Analysis: EUR/USD – 1H Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade in line with the prevailing trend from the previous week. Market activity was minimal throughout

Paolo Greco 08:48 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for GBP/USD on July 10th

On Wednesday, GBP/USD remained within its descending channel. However, a more interesting setup emerged in the 4-hour time frame, where the price attempted several times to break through the Senkou

Paolo Greco 06:57 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Review for EUR/USD on July 10th

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued moving within a weak downward channel, as previously forecast. However, volatility dropped to a minimum, there was no macroeconomic backdrop for the third consecutive

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-10 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on July 9th: Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its moderate downward movement, which is clearly of a technical and corrective nature. On both Monday and Tuesday, there were no significant macroeconomic events

Paolo Greco 08:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on July 9th? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild downward movement in line with the prevailing trend. After a fairly strong upward move, the market began a correction. The nature

Paolo Greco 08:28 2025-07-09 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.