Forex Analysis & Reviews: 14.04.2025 - The Market Wants to, But...

Live Chat

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

14.04.2025 09:45 AM

The Market Wants to, But Hesitates

Do you have a plan, Mr. Donald Trump? Some believe what's happening is masterful diplomacy — they hope that once serious proposals from other countries reach the White House, tariffs will be lifted, GDP will accelerate to 3%, and the S&P 500 will hit new record highs. Others are convinced that import tariffs will drive the U.S. economy into a recession, causing the broad stock index to resume its decline. One thing is clear: investors are tired of uncertainty and hope that clarity regarding the new trade regime will enable them to buy stocks. But not so fast.

Following the announcement of sweeping tariffs, we witnessed ten days of historic turbulence in financial markets. The S&P 500's market cap plunged by $5.8 trillion only to surge again by $4 trillion. The White House alternated between imposing tariffs and announcing postponements. One day, it raised the stakes against Beijing to 145%; the next, it exempted $100 billion worth of popular Chinese electronics from duties — about 23% of total imports from China. Is it any surprise that the VIX surged to its highest levels since March 2020? Is fear still ruling the market?

U.S. Stock Market Volatility Dynamics

Yes and no. There's an aversion to American assets due to the White House's constantly shifting tone and decisions. At the same time, we're seeing a resurgence of FOMO — the "buy or miss out" strategy. Indeed, the pullback in the S&P 500 has left investors stuck in a "tempted but cautious" state of mind.

This historic volatility has made safe-haven assets the winners: gold, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. At first glance, the euro's strength might seem illogical, but considering that German bonds have become beneficiaries of the White House's erratic decisions — as opposed to U.S. Treasuries — it all starts to make sense.

Asset Performance During Days of Historic Market Volatility

Investors are confident that Europe and China will stimulate their economies to counteract the negative impact of tariffs and trade wars. Meanwhile, Trump's loosening grip on the European Union has accelerated the outflow of capital from the US to the EU, putting pressure on the S&P 500.

Furthermore, Wall Street Journal experts have raised the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months from 22% to 45%. The GDP forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 0.8%, with some analysts expecting a 2% contraction this year. Others, however, are betting on a swift tariff rollback and GDP expansion to 3%. The first scenario appears more likely — suggesting the stock market is not out of the woods yet. The rough patch is far from over.

From a technical perspective, an inside bar was played out on the S&P 500's daily chart, allowing for the formation of long positions. Now it's time for the second phase of the previously announced strategy: profit-taking on long positions and selling on pullbacks from resistance at 5500 and 5600.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.