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31.07.2023 02:18 PM
US stock premarket on July 31. Stock indices to reach annual highs?
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Futures for the benchmark US stock indices slightly rose in the morning after a recovery last Friday. Futures for the benchmark US stock indices slightly rose in the morning after a recovery last Friday. Futures for the S&P 500 grew by 0.1%, and for the Nasdaq 100 by 0.2%. Global stock markets are also in the green zone. They are trying to maintain a steady uptrend as traders are revising their portfolios after comments made by central banks' policymakers last week regarding interest rates.

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Speculators are waiting for the earnings reports of the world's largest companies - Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. They will publish their quarterly results in the coming days.

As for monetary policy prospects, in a recent interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed once again that inflation pressures remain high and borrowing costs will be raised further even if the regulator decides to take a pause at its next meeting. It will help assess what is happening in the economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said that The inflation outlook in the US is "quite positive," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said, though the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening campaign to tamp down price surges will likely result in some job losses and slower growth.

Investors will continue to focus on whether policymakers will be able to engineer a soft landing or not. At the end of this week, data on the labor market will be released, which will provide more details about the state of the economy. Last week's reports on US GDP growth and today's report on the European economy indicate a stable economic expansion.

There are also analysts who are confident that the stock market is at the start of its bull cycle. The last time it occurred was in 2019 when the Fed took a pause and then cut rates. This event triggered a stellar rally in the stock market.

On Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would allow yields to rise above a ceiling it now calls a point of reference. That paves the way for a future normalization of policy that has implications for a wide range of global assets and for markets heavily exposed to Japanese money.

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The oil market climbed as well after talks that the Chinese government may take more drastic measures to stimulate the economy in the near future. Gold continues to trade below $2,000.

As for the technical outlook of the S&P 500, it still retains a bullish sentiment. It needs to stay above $4,582. From this level, there may be a breakout of $4,609. Bulls should also take control over $4,637, which will stimulate the bull market. In the case of a downward movement due to a decrease in risk appetite, buyers will have to defend $4,582. A breakout of this level will help the index rebound to $4,557. After that, it could rise to $4,539.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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