Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0262 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to rise from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro as part of the Asian session's upward movement. However, after a 15-point rally, demand for the euro declined.

In the second half of the day, the monthly U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to significantly impact the forex market. Economists predict growth in both the headline PPI and the core PPI (excluding food and energy). Should the data exceed economists' forecasts, it would serve as a key indicator for investors, signaling rising inflation and strengthening economic activity.

An increase in producer prices could also prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess the timing of rate cuts this year, supporting the U.S. dollar. Additionally, changes in PPI may reflect shifts in the production environment, affecting various economic sectors. Higher producer prices could lead companies to adjust pricing and production strategies, with potential long-term consequences for the labor market and consumer demand.

Don't overlook the speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Jeffrey Schmid, as their comments could shed light on the Fed's plans regarding rate cuts this year.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today at the 1.0267 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0326. At 1.0326, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in anticipation of a 30-35 point decline from the entry point. Expect euro growth today within a corrective framework.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0245 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0267 and 1.0326.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0245 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0187, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in anticipation of a 20-25 point upward move from the level. Pressure on the pair can return at any moment.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: Also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0267 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0245 and 1.0187.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Key for determining entry points, focusing on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Be cautious when making market entry decisions.
• Avoid trading during the release of key economic reports to mitigate the risk of sharp price swings.
• Always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
• Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently losing strategies for intraday traders.