empty
29.01.2025 10:53 AM
Markets expect no surprises at FOMC meeting. NASDAQ CFDs and Bitcoin poised to grow

Indeed, the DeepSeek case in China caught the West off guard and served as a striking example of a "cold shower" reaction in an environment where Western economies have been basking in their own achievements in artificial intelligence. However, in my view, it's too early to talk about Western AI companies losing their leadership—this sector simply won't be a monopoly anymore, which is ultimately beneficial for consumers of these technological solutions.

On Tuesday, after digesting the news from China, the stock market began an active recovery. The three benchmark US stock indices recouped most of their losses, and investors are now fully focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The two-day FOMC meeting concludes today, and it's worth taking a closer look at this issue.

Market expectations and the Fed's interest rate decision

Let's start with market expectations—do investors foresee any changes in monetary policy following this meeting? According to futures on federal funds rates, the market assigns a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged within the 4.25%–4.50% range. As I mentioned earlier, the key factor won't be the decision itself but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where markets will be looking for his outlook on further rate cuts this year.

What to expect from Powell?

I don't believe Powell will deliver any new insights to the markets. He will likely highlight the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's economic policies, which are already causing market fluctuations. One day, Trump threatens to impose higher import tariffs on Colombia over migration issues. The next, he backtracks after getting his way. And so the cycle continues.

Powell is also expected to reference inflation trends amid a strong labor market, where employment growth and still-high wages continue to drive consumer demand for goods and services. Additionally, he may touch on tariff policies, which, if implemented rather than merely threatened, could further drive up prices and inflation. Given these factors, Powell will likely emphasize the need to maintain a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring economic developments before making any moves.

If the FOMC and Jerome Powell deliver no surprises regarding interest rates, market reaction to the decision is likely to be muted. This, in turn, would create favorable conditions for US stock indices to continue their recovery, while demand for cryptocurrencies could also rise. The US dollar, however, could come under pressure in such a scenario.

Daily forecast

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

#NDX The NASDAQ 100 CFD is recovering. A breakthrough above the 21,536.20 resistance level could push the index further toward 21,859.40.

Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading below 102,805.00. Easing market tensions could drive crypto prices higher. A break above this level may serve as a catalyst for growth toward 106,660.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY: Inflation, Kato's Statement, and the Outlook for a Downward Trend

The USD/JPY pair hit a nearly two-month low, reacting to Japan's January inflation report, but then sharply reversed following an unexpected statement from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.During Friday's Asian session

Irina Manzenko 12:34 2025-02-21 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is staging a strong recovery, climbing nearly 150 points from the 149.30-149.25 level, the lowest since December 3. The rebound comes as the Japanese yen weakens following

Irina Yanina 12:31 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Markets. The First Results of Trump's Presidency. What's Next? (Potential USD/CAD Increase and EUR/USD Decline)

The initial impact of D. Trump's presidency on financial markets has been mixed. Let's examine the key takeaways. Starting with stock markets, the U.S. stock market has remained close

Pati Gani 09:21 2025-02-21 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on February 21? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A significant number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday. While none of these events are of ultra-high importance individually, their combined impact could greatly influence the movement of currency

Paolo Greco 07:11 2025-02-21 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Why is the Yen Rising?

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a sharp decline, breaking through all intermediate support levels. At the time of writing, the bears were testing a strong price barrier at 150.00, which

Irina Manzenko 03:03 2025-02-21 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure, extending its downward movement for the second consecutive session, with spot prices now hovering just above the psychological level of 150.00. This leaves

Irina Yanina 11:40 2025-02-20 UTC+2

The Market Sets Record After Record

The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, ignoring the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.5% for an extended period. The minutes from

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Markets Teeter in Uncertainty Due to the U.S. Situation (Potential Increase in Gold and Crude Oil Prices)

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, released on Wednesday, indicate that the central bank is significantly concerned about the lack of progress in reducing inflation

Pati Gani 09:23 2025-02-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on February 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday. In the past three days, various reports have been released intermittently, but they have had virtually no impact on the British

Paolo Greco 06:48 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Overview of the GBP/USD Pair on February 20: The Pound Ignores Inflation but Remains in an Uptrend

The GBP/USD currency pair had every reason to continue rising on Wednesday, just like it did the day before. However, this situation illustrates the paradox of a corrective movement: when

Paolo Greco 05:35 2025-02-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.