empty
30.04.2025 01:26 PM
USD/CAD: The Pair Consolidates Under Pressure

This image is no longer relevant

USD/CAD is showing sideways movement, with spot prices currently trading around the 1.3840 level. The decline in crude oil prices to a three-week low, amid concerns that a full-scale trade war could trigger a global recession and reduce fuel demand, is weighing on the Canadian dollar, as Canada's economy heavily depends on oil exports. An increase in supply from OPEC+ could worsen the situation further, lowering demand, as several OPEC+ members have announced they will accelerate production growth for a second consecutive month in June.

In addition, the modest rise of the U.S. dollar is providing some tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, this rise lacks a clear catalyst other than pre-data anticipation ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic releases. Nonetheless, prospects for a more aggressive easing of Federal Reserve policy, supported by yesterday's disappointing U.S. economic reports, may deter traders from buying the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, the unstable actions of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding trade policy have recently led to a mass exodus of investors from American assets, which is also expected to limit the growth of both the U.S. dollar and the USD/CAD pair overall.

On the Canadian dollar side, the victory of the Liberal Party in the elections strengthens the position of the current government and Prime Minister Mark Carney in trade negotiations with the U.S., contributing to the stability of the Canadian dollar and further restraining the growth of the USD/CAD pair, demanding caution from the bulls.

For better trading opportunities this week, attention should be paid to upcoming releases such as the ADP private sector employment report, U.S. GDP and PCE data, which will have a significant market impact. In addition, today's economic calendar includes the release of Canada's monthly GDP report, which, together with oil price dynamics, will influence the Canadian currency and provide some momentum for the USD/CAD pair.

The above-mentioned mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution before opening aggressive directional positions in either direction ahead of the news.

From a technical standpoint, the price movement within the current range can be classified as a consolidation phase. Given that oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in negative territory and far from oversold conditions, this favors the bears and suggests that the path of least resistance for USD/CAD is likely downward.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is declining below the $3300 level today. U.S. PCE data met expectations. A shift in trade flows is helping the U.S. dollar regain positive momentum. This is also undermining

Irina Yanina 17:37 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Inflation Is Almost Under Control

While the euro continues to hold its ground against the dollar, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta indicated during an interview today that inflation in the eurozone

Jakub Novak 13:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum today, though traders remain cautious ahead of the key U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release. As a preferred inflation

Irina Yanina 13:22 2025-05-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair continues to struggle to recover after rebounding from the 1.1200 level reached earlier, showing a moderately negative bias, although the decline remains limited. The U.S. dollar

Irina Yanina 13:19 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Legal Disputes Between Trump and Companies Over Tariffs Will Negatively Impact Markets (There Is a Likelihood of Continued Decline in Bitcoin and Litecoin Prices)

Global markets are significantly influenced by events occurring in the United States, where both political and economic spheres continue to swing like a pendulum. Earlier this week, after the U.S

Pati Gani 11:11 2025-05-30 UTC+2

More Time is Needed

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan indicated yesterday that it might take some time before policymakers understand how the economy will react to tariffs and other policy changes

Jakub Novak 10:53 2025-05-30 UTC+2

The ECB Should Not Delay Rate Cuts

While the euro is trying to regain its monthly highs after a fairly significant correction seen this week, a survey of several economists shows that the European Central Bank

Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Markets Demand an Appeal

The S&P 500 started the day strong but ended on a downbeat note. Initially buoyed by the U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling that the White House's tariffs were illegal

Marek Petkovich 10:33 2025-05-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are set to be released on Friday, but none are deemed particularly significant. In Germany, the inflation report for May will be released, with expectations

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 30: Justice Has Prevailed, but for How Long?

The GBP/USD currency pair closed below the moving average line on Thursday, and the dollar strengthened for three consecutive days. However, everything changed in the second half

Paolo Greco 03:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.