empty
27.08.2021 06:25 PM
AUD/NZD. Sales in the trend: downward trend potential is not yet exhausted

It is extremely risky to trade dollar pairs today: during the US trading session on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce his "verdict", which will determine the fate of the US currency. And although most experts are confident that the chairman of the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see position regarding the curtailment of QE, there are serious risks of false price movements, especially in the relatively short period of time between the speech and the end of the trading week. During periods of such emotional volatility, it is best to stay out of the market: traders will not immediately crystallize their general opinion about the results of the June meeting. Therefore, today it is possible (and necessary) to distract from the currency pairs of the "major" group by paying attention to cross-pairs that are almost not affected by the greenback.

Among the numerous cross-pairs, the AUD/NZD pair can be distinguished. This cross demonstrates the most stable "one-way" movement: since the beginning of June, the pair has been within the framework of a protracted downward trend. Despite the temporary upward pullbacks, the New Zealand dollar is persistently strengthening its position. Over the past 11 weeks, the pair have marched almost 500 points, and apparently, this is not the limit. At least, the fundamental picture is still in favor of the New Zealand dollar, despite certain "fly in the ointment" in the form of the notorious "delta strain". But as for the prospects of the Australian dollar, the situation here looks quite vague.

This image is no longer relevant

Let me remind you that after the RBNZ announced the termination of the incentive program at the July meeting (which was supposed to be in effect until the summer of 2022), a general opinion crystallized in the market: the next step of the regulator will be an increase in the interest rate. But by an evil irony of fate, the first case of coronavirus in many months was discovered in New Zealand (inside the country) just before the RBNZ meeting. Given the fact that even isolated cases of infection are treated seriously in the country, there was no doubt that the regulator would not rush to make "hawkish" decisions.

In the end, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand took a break, thereby bringing down the national currency. But there is one "but" here. In an accompanying statement, the RBNZ admitted the likelihood that the regulator will tighten monetary policy at the December meeting if the country retains "the necessary conditions for this." Also, the New Zealand Central Bank indicated that in September 2022 the rate should be 1.4% (previously the forecast level was at around 0.50%). In addition, the central bank members were optimistic about the rate of inflation growth: the growth of the annual CPI, according to forecasts, should grow to 2.2% by September next year (previously the forecast was at 1.6%).

Let me remind you that, at the beginning of this year, New Zealand actually defeated the pandemic, stopping the spread of COVID-19. Isolated cases of the disease were registered on the island, not within the country but among those citizens who returned from abroad. A strict and peremptory quarantine policy has helped New Zealand eliminate COVID-19, allowing people to live without any restrictions. It can be assumed that the current restrictions will lead to a similar result.

In Australia, the situation is more complicated-both in the context of the epidemiological situation and in the context of the prospects for tightening monetary policy. Yesterday, almost a thousand new cases of coronavirus infection were detected in the country, this is the largest daily increase since the beginning of the pandemic. Due to the Covid outbreak in the country's three largest cities — Melbourne, Canberra, and Sydney – almost half of all Australians live in isolation. In Sydney, where more than 5 million people live, the lockdown was extended for another month, until the end of September. And surely this is not the last prolongation of the quarantine. Against the background of recent trends, the head of the Australian government said that the country will not lift quarantine restrictions until it vaccinates 70% of adults. According to preliminary estimates, this will happen no earlier than October-November of this year.

Recall that at the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed the decision taken at its July meeting to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds to $4 billion a week from September from the current $5 billion. However, the prospects for further steps were questionable. According to the minutes of the last meeting of the RBA, the members of the Central Bank during the discussion admitted the option of suspending the curtailment of QE due to the worsening of the epidemiological situation. This fact put pressure on the Australian dollar - especially when paired with the New Zealand dollar, amid the hawkish intentions of the RBNZ. I note that the August meeting of the RBA was held at the beginning of the month, and since then the situation with the coronavirus in the country has only worsened.

Thus, the current fundamental background contributes to the further development of the downward trend of AUD/NZD. The nearest target is 1.0400 (lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The next target is located at 1.0350 (also the lower line of the Bollinger Bands, only on the weekly timeframe).

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pada masa ini, yen Jepun menunjukkan momentum positif berbanding dolar A.S. untuk hari kedua berturut-turut. Faktor utama yang menyokong mata wang Jepun adalah kenyataan bernada agresif daripada Timbalan Gabenor Bank

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Pihak Pasaran Sedang Mengubah Peraturan Permainan

Jangan menentang orang ramai. Menurut laporan dari Goldman Sachs dan Rizab Persekutuan, pelabur individu memegang saham A.S. bernilai $35 trilion pada akhir tahun 2024, bersamaan dengan 38% daripada keseluruhan pasaran

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 14 Mei? Pecahan Acara Asas Kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Terdapat sangat sedikit peristiwa makroekonomi yang dijadualkan pada hari Rabu. Satu-satunya perkara yang penting adalah anggaran kedua Indeks Aktiviti Perniagaan Jerman untuk bulan April. Anggaran kedua biasanya

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 14 Mei: Hanya Perjanjian Perdagangan yang Penting

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata wang GBP/USD juga mengakhiri sesuatu yang boleh dipanggil memalukan kejatuhannya. Pada hari Isnin, dolar A.S. mengukuh dengan agak baik selepas pusingan pertama rundingan yang berjaya

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 14 Mei: Rentak Positif Tidak Bertahan Lama

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD mencatatkan pergerakan menaik untuk sebahagian besar hari Selasa. Seseorang mudah terbiasa dengan berita baik, dan pasaran menjangkakan pengukuhan berterusan dolar AS. Kami menjangkakan pertumbuhan dolar, dengan

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Dan Kemudian Tiba Saat Kesedaran: Kegembiraan Pasaran Terhadap Gencatan Dagangan Amerika Syarikat-China Semakin Pudar

Pasaran mata wang yang pada mulanya gembira selepas pengumuman gencatan dagang sementara antara AS dan China kini telah pudar. Optimisme awal telah bertukar menjadi kesedaran bahawa gencatan tidak bermakna penyelesaian

Irina Manzenko 01:23 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Inflasi Membuat Dolar Mengalami Kesulitan

Salah satu daripada beberapa penunjuk yang sekali-sekala mendapat perhatian pasaran ialah inflasi di AS. Selepas Donald Trump memperkenalkan tarif perdagangan, para ahli ekonomi segera mula membincangkan kemungkinan kenaikan inflasi. Kesimpulan

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Euro Bersedia untuk Tindakan Balas

Manusia merancang, Tuhan menentukan. Selepas Rumah Putih mengenakan tarif ketat pada Hari Kemerdekaan Amerika, banyak perbincangan tertumpu kepada peningkatan inflasi dan kelembapan ekonomi A.S. Namun begitu, berbeza dengan jangkaan tersebut

Marek Petkovich 00:18 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan USD/CHF sedang berundur dari paras tertinggi bulanan yang dicapai semalam. Pengunduran ini dipacu oleh pembetulan teknikal selepas pergerakan menaik yang kuat. Indeks Dolar AS, yang mencerminkan nilai dolar berbanding

Irina Yanina 18:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, pasangan USD/CAD meneruskan kenaikan lima hari berturut-turut, dan kini diniagakan berhampiran paras psikologi utama 1.4000, di mana ia sedang berdepan rintangan menjelang penerbitan data Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI)

Irina Yanina 18:26 2025-05-13 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.