Analisis Forex & Kajian: 02.12.2022 - Crypto market slows down...

02.12.2022 01:25 PM

Crypto market slows down ahead of weekend: what to expect from Bitcoin and Ethereum next?

The cryptocurrency market meets Friday in a lazy mood, which is reflected in the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies. Over the past day, the market capitalization of all digital assets has decreased by almost 1%, which is a significant decrease in the current conditions.

Inflation triggers bullish momentum

Despite this, the fundamental news background remains positive and neatly spoils the market, where we should expect the next bullish impulse reaction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the main signal to reduce inflation will be the PCE Price Index statistics.

According to the released data, the economic indicator rose +6% in October. In September, the metric reached 6.3%. The presence of a downward trend in the PCE metric indicates a continuation of the downward trend in the inflation rate.

This means that the next inflation report could trigger a boom in high-risk asset markets. Given this, we should expect increased volatility and attention of crypto investors to the next inflation report.

Negative factors

With all the positive developments in the fight against inflation, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remains at the local bottom. This provokes huge losses of related industries, which, in turn, negatively affect the upward potential of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin's hash rate has reached 300 EH/s again, while the price remains near $17k. This provokes one of the largest sell-offs among miners in history. Over the past day, the reserves of mining companies have fallen by 10,000 BTC.

In addition, miners sell BTC mining equipment to cover running costs. There have also been reports that mining firms are using hardware as collateral for the loans they need to stay viable.

BTC/USD Analysis

Given the miners' concerns above, Bitcoin's upward movement has stalled near the $17k–$17.1k resistance level . Despite the slowdown in growth rates, the bears failed to seize the initiative and absorb the volumes of the bulls in the last days of November.

As a result, Bitcoin failed to completely leave the "triangle," which means that the probability of a period of local accumulation before the beginning of next week is greatly increased. Technical metrics also point to a pause: the RSI is moving flat, while the stochastic is forming a bearish crossover.

Given the divergence of technical metrics and the possibility of a decline, BTC needs to hold the $16.7k level. Otherwise, the price will go to retest $16k and below. However, in general, the activation of buyers, the growing correlation with stocks and a positive fundamental background can provoke a new monthly high.

ETH/USD Analysis

On the daily chart of ETH/USD, a situation similar to Bitcoin has formed. The price is near the border of the fluctuation range and has every chance to make a bullish breakout and storm $1,400 and $1,450.

However, the close relationship with BTC does not allow the altcoin to move on its own, and therefore the main signal for the growth of the ETH price will be the bullish momentum of Bitcoin. Ethereum technical indicators are also echoing BTC and are in a consolidation pause.

At the same time, Ethereum on-chain activity is growing, which may indicate an attempt to finally go beyond the $1,050–$1,350 range. It is also worth noting the low activity of sellers in the ETH network, which may indicate a high probability of a successful attempt by the bulls to break through $1,300 over the weekend.

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