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20.08.2024 01:38 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD pair on August 20, 2024

The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Monday, closing the day above the resistance zone of 1.1070–1.1081. As a result, even without a correction, the pair's upward momentum may continue towards the next level at 1.1140. A close below the 1.1070–1.1081 zone would favor the U.S. dollar and potentially lead to a decline towards the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0984.

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The wave situation has become slightly more complex, but overall, it remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break below the previous wave's low, while the new upward wave surpassed the peak from August 14. Therefore, the bullish trend is still intact. For this trend to be reversed, the bears now need to break the low of the last downward wave, which is around the 1.0950 level.

There was no significant news on Monday, but this did not deter bullish traders. We observed steady buying of the euro throughout the day. While there are numerous potential reasons for this, there is no clear evidence that these factors are the exact causes of the dollar's decline. It is important to note that the market is always influenced by a multitude of informational factors that can be attributed to any movement. For example, later this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and the market is undoubtedly expecting dovish rhetoric. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold a significant meeting in a month, where for the first time in many years, monetary policy might be eased instead of tightened. Bullish traders may be driving their continuous attacks based on these factors. At the same time, it's worth noting that the market rarely moves without being fueled by new data. Last week, the news wasn't disastrous for the dollar, and there was no news at all on Monday, yet the dollar couldn't manage even a slight recovery. Technical analysis currently seems to have greater priority.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro around the 38.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0876 and began a new upward movement. The consolidation above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0977 suggests that the pair may continue to rise towards the next corrective level at 0.0% – 1.1139. Today, a bearish divergence formed on the CCI indicator, but within a bullish trend, this may only signal a potential correction. In my view, the current growth does not align with the fundamental background, but the technical picture clearly indicates a bullish trend without signs of completion.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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During the last reporting week, speculators closed 3,587 long positions and opened 3,010 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group shifted to bearish several months ago, but currently, the bulls are once again dominating. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 182,000, while the number of short positions is 155,000.

I still believe that the situation will eventually shift in favor of the bears. I don't see any long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has begun easing monetary policy, which will reduce the yield on bank deposits and government bonds. In the U.S., bond yields are expected to remain high at least until September, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for a significant decline in the euro is evident. However, one should not forget about technical analysis, which currently does not suggest a strong fall in the euro, as well as the fundamental background.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for August 20th contains only one event. The impact of the information background on trader sentiment today will be very weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair today can be considered if it closes below the 1.1070–1.1081 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0984. I would approach buying with caution, but after a consolidation above 1.1081, new trades can be considered with a target of 1.1140.

Fibonacci levels are plotted based on 1.0917–1.0668 on the hourly chart and 1.0450–1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
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امریکہ اور یورپی یونین کے درمیان ممکنہ طور پر غیر متوازن تجارتی معاہدے پر خدشات کے درمیان یورو نسبتاً کمزور کارکردگی دکھا رہا ہے۔ اس کے علاوہ، مارکیٹ اس ہفتے

Irina Yanina 19:14 2025-07-29 UTC+2

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پیر کو،یورو / یو ایس ڈی جوڑا امریکی ڈالر کے حق میں پلٹ گیا اور 1.1574 پر 100.0% فیبوناچی کی سطح کی طرف تیزی سے گراوٹ کا سامنا کرنا پڑا۔

Samir Klishi 15:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

جولائی 28-30 2025 کے لیے سونے کے لیے تجارتی اشارہ : $3,320 سے اوپر خریدیں (200 ای ایم اے - 5/8 مرے)

اگر سونا مرے کی سطح کے 5/8 سے نیچے گرتا ہے، تو مندی کا دباؤ تیز ہونے کا امکان ہے، اور قیمت 3,281 کے قریب مرے کی سطح کے 4/8

Dimitrios Zappas 18:37 2025-07-28 UTC+2

بٹ کوائن کے لیے 28-30 جولائی 2025 کے لیے تجارتی سگنل: $119,800 سے نیچے فروخت (200 ای ایم اے - 21 ایس ایم اے)

بٹ کوائن کے آنے والے دنوں میں اس قیمت کی حد کے اندر تجارت جاری رکھنے کی توقع ہے، لہذا ہم $121,000 سے نیچے فروخت کرنے اور $115,000 سے اوپر

Dimitrios Zappas 18:35 2025-07-28 UTC+2

جولائی 28-30 2025 کے لیے یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے تجارتی سگنل: 1.1780 سے نیچے فروخت کریں (21 ایس ایم اے - 8/8 مرے)

اس کے برعکس، اگر یورو آنے والے دنوں میں 1.1750 سے اوپر مضبوط ہو جاتا ہے، تو یہ بحال ہونا جاری رکھ سکتا ہے اور 1.1840 پر +1/8

Dimitrios Zappas 18:33 2025-07-28 UTC+2

یورو / یو ایس ڈی : تجزیہ اور پیشن گوئی

ایشین سیشن کے دوران نئے ہفتے کے آغاز پر، یورو / یو ایس ڈی پئیر نے مثبت رہنے کی کوشش کی، لیکن یورپی سیشن کے دوران، قیمتیں 1.1750

Irina Yanina 16:16 2025-07-28 UTC+2

جولائی 24 2025 کو یورو / یو ایس ڈی کے لیے پیشن گوئی

بدھ کو، یورو / یو ایس ڈی جوڑا 127.2% فیبوناچی ریٹریسمنٹ کی سطح سے 1.1712 پر واپس آیا، یورو کے حق میں پلٹ گیا، اور 1.1802

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جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی کی پیشن گوئی برائے 24 جولائی 2025

فی گھنٹہ چارٹ پر، جی بی پی / یو ایس ڈی جوڑا بدھ کو 1.3530 پر 61.8% فیبوناچی ریٹریسمنٹ کی سطح سے اوپر مضبوط ہوا اور 1.3579 پر 50.0%

Samir Klishi 19:17 2025-07-24 UTC+2

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اگر بٹ کوائن میں اضافہ جاری رہتا ہے، تو ہم یہ توقع کر سکتے ہیں کہ یہ 121,875 پر 7/8 مرے کی سطح تک پہنچ جائے گا اور بالآخر $125,000

Dimitrios Zappas 16:59 2025-07-23 UTC+2
ابھی فوری بات نہیں کرسکتے ؟
اپنا سوال پوچھیں بذریعہ چیٹ.
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