empty
04.01.2023 10:43 AM
Is Bitcoin preparing to update the local bottom in Q1 2023?

Bitcoin remains unwaveringly committed to an indifferent flat movement in the first days of January 2023. The cryptocurrency managed to achieve local success and form a green candle, thanks to which the asset reached the level of $16.8k.

However, if we trace the weekly path of Bitcoin to current positions, we can note low trading volumes, as well as low investment activity of long-term investors. Certain categories of hodlers continue to sell off their BTC holdings.

This image is no longer relevant

According to data from Glassnode, the number of addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC has dropped to 2,000. The figure has reached a three-year low, indicating a lack of consensus among long-term investors regarding Bitcoin.

In part, this fact indicates that the period of large-scale consolidation and redistribution of BTC volumes continues. However, throughout 2022, the market became convinced that the best catalyst for the movement of BTC coins is a crisis situation and a sharp drop in price.

Is Bitcoin heading toward $10k?

According to experts of the largest investment company VanEck, the cryptocurrency market is heading for this scenario. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of 2023 will be characterized by an aggravation of crisis processes and high volatility.

This image is no longer relevant

It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downward movement and update the local bottom near the $10k–$12k levels. According to VanEck experts, this will be affected by the current state of the mining industry. The rise in the price of energy resources and the cost of mining BTC provoke huge losses among the miners.

Recall that, on average, for each BTC mined, mining companies incur a loss of about $3,000. It also recently became known that the total credit debt of public mining companies is more than $4 billion. VanEck experts consider these factors to be key in the future fall in the price of the cryptocurrency.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that the warning about "several difficult months" was contained in a letter to the employees of the largest crypto exchange Binance. Also, the average percentage of BTC price drop from the high is 85%. As part of the current bear market, the asset lost about 77%.

This image is no longer relevant

Presumably, when the price of Bitcoin reaches the $10k–$12k area, the percentage of the fall from the high will be approximately 82%–85%. Given these data, forecasts from VanEck experts have every chance of becoming a reality.

SPX and Bitcoin

A regular guest of analysis of the situation around Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index is more relevant today than ever. If you look at the SPX annual price chart, you can see that despite the massive drop after 2021, the asset is still overheated.

This image is no longer relevant

Given the approaching recession and the focus of investors on capital preservation, the fall of SPX may continue. Bank of America and BNP Paribas forecast that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at $3,400.

This image is no longer relevant

As of January 4, the stock index quotes are close to $3,800. A fall to the $3,400 level will mean that the asset's capitalization will lose another 8%–10%. Given that SPX is the flagship of the stock market, a corresponding movement should be expected on other instruments.

BTC/USD Analysis

In the medium term, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will update the local bottom, which will cause the next stage of capitulation and redistribution of capital. At a distance of a year, the asset may resume its upward movement and reach the level of $30k, according to VanEck experts.

This image is no longer relevant

A key factor in the recovery movement of the Bitcoin price may be a reversal of the Fed's policy. More than 2/3 of economists from the 23 largest financial institutions expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there are plans to increase the key rate to the 5%–5.5% level. At current rates, the indicator will reach the indicated milestone by March–April 2023, just in time for the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Results

The crypto market has survived most of the bear market, however, many factors point to the need for a final dive. Given this, we should not expect significant recovery movements in the BTC price in the first half of 2023.

The main stage of the price recovery and consolidation movement in preparation for the 2024 bull market will begin in the second half of 2023. Until then, the investment environment in the crypto market will be toxic and unattractive due to the recession and future bankruptcies of crypto companies.

Artem Petrenko,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Mercado de criptomoedas apresenta volatilidade extremamente baixa

A volatilidade do Bitcoin caiu para um nível historicamente baixo, enquanto a criptomoeda está sendo negociada a menos de 2% de sua máxima histórica. A falta de disposição dos investidores

Jakub Novak 14:41 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Mercado de criptomoedas resiliente apesar da volatilidade do dólar

Após a queda de ontem, o BTC/USD está se recuperando hoje, mantendo, de modo geral, sua trajetória de alta. Fundamentalmente, as condições continuam favoráveis para o crescimento

Jurij Tolin 17:45 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Dicas de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 8 de julho

Tanto o Bitcoin quanto o Ethereum permanecem em uma base sólida, prontos para continuar uma tendência de alta. Enquanto o BTC continuar a ser negociado acima da marca de US$

Miroslaw Bawulski 17:36 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Lei de Clareza para criptoativos avança com apoio no Congresso

O Bitcoin e o Ethereum voltaram a operar dentro dos canais em que passaram a maior parte da semana passada. Embora o Bitcoin ainda não tenha conseguido ultrapassar a marca

Jakub Novak 17:05 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Metaplanet anuncia Banco Digital no Japão

Enquanto o Bitcoin se recusa obstinadamente a cair, alimentado pela demanda maciça dos fundos ETF, a empresa japonesa Metaplanet está planejando usar suas reservas de Bitcoin para criar o primeiro

Jakub Novak 14:44 2025-07-08 UTC+2

O America Party, fundado por Elon Musk, apoia o Bitcoin e os ativos digitais

O partido político recém-formado, America Party, liderado por Elon Musk, apoiará o Bitcoin. Isso foi anunciado pelo próprio CEO da Tesla nas redes sociais. "O dinheiro fiduciário é inútil, então

Jakub Novak 16:19 2025-07-07 UTC+2

O Bitcoin testará seu Suporte 1 após ultrapassar e fechar abaixo da linha de tendência de alta no gráfico intradiário, na sexta-feira, 4 de julho de 2024.

Bitcoin – Sexta-feira, 4 de julho de 2025. Com um influxo no ETF de Bitcoin de cerca de US$ 50 bilhões, isso demonstra um forte interesse dos investidores, fortalecendo

Arief Makmur 15:50 2025-07-04 UTC+2

A Ripple tem potencial para corrigir e enfraquecer até o nível de suporte de 2,1924, sexta-feira, 4 de julho de 2025

Ripple – Sexta-feira, 4 de julho de 2025 A pressão regulatória favorável e o caso com a SEC, que parece ter sido encerrado, além do interesse aberto no mercado

Arief Makmur 15:43 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 3 de julho

Bitcoin e Ether retomaram o crescimento, atingindo novos máximos semanais em meio a condições macroeconômicas favoráveis. Nas últimas 24 horas, o Bitcoin subiu 2,5%, sendo negociado acima de US$ 109.000

Miroslaw Bawulski 22:08 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Recomendações de negociação para o mercado de criptomoedas em 1º de julho

O Bitcoin não conseguiu manter o nível de US$ 108.000, caindo em uma zona mais aceitável em torno de US$ 107.000. O Ethereum também mostrou fraqueza no final

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:41 2025-07-01 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.