empty
03.01.2025 05:38 PM
Analysis for EUR/USD on January 3, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming increasingly clear and interesting. Since January 2024, I can identify only two three-wave patterns (a-b-c) with a turning point on April 16. After completing the upward wave structure, a new downward structure began forming, which has the potential to become impulsive. If this proves to be the case, a more convincing fifth wave is expected to form, after which the pair could transition to constructing a prolonged and complex corrective structure.

Overall, the current wave analysis seems straightforward and clear. I would like to remind you that market fundamentals can be misleading for one, two, or even three months, but not indefinitely. Recent US reports showed that the economy is not facing severe issues. There is no recession, and it is unlikely to occur. The economy may slow down, but its current growth rates allow it to navigate this period without significant losses. The Federal Reserve is expected to ease policy slower and less aggressively than the market anticipated at the beginning of the year. Conversely, the ECB sees no reason to stop easing and will likely continue.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair gained 30 basis points. This rise is negligible compared to yesterday's drop in the euro, marking another decline in recent months. I believe the new fall in the euro was predictable, given the overwhelming factors weighing on the EU currency, which are hard to ignore. I still think the recent market movements reflect a reaction to unmet expectations. In 2024, the market anticipated 6–7 rounds of Federal Reserve monetary easing but only got three. In 2025, expectations were clearly higher than the two 25-basis-point cuts that have been announced. Thus, a "dovish" scenario was priced into the dollar, and now the market seems to be recalibrating.

No news yesterday provided strong support for the dollar, nor were there reports today that would fail to support the US currency. German unemployment data released today showed neutral results, with unemployment levels unchanged and figures aligning with market expectations. Later today, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US will be released, providing the final piece of data for the first week of 2025. Significant market fluctuations are possible during the final trading hours of the week. However, these fluctuations will not negate the fact that demand for the dollar has been growing for over three months—a fully justified market reaction.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build a new downward trend segment. The unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.1184 level signaled the beginning of a series of downward waves. Three failed attempts to break the 200.0% Fibonacci level indicated readiness for the fifth wave, targeting as low as the 1.02 range. Yesterday, the pair entered the 1.02 range, and the fifth wave could conclude at any moment.

At a higher wave scale, it is evident that the wave structure is evolving into a more complex formation, primarily consisting of corrective waves. A new set of downward waves is likely, but its length and structure remain challenging to predict at this stage.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often require adjustments.
  2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders for protection.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análise do EUR/USD em 25 de abril de 2025

O padrão de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD sofreu uma reviravolta e agora exibe uma formação nitidamente altista. É seguro afirmar que essa mudança se deu unicamente

Chin Zhao 21:08 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 25 de abril de 2025

O padrão de ondas no gráfico do GBP/USD também se transformou em uma estrutura altista e impulsiva — "graças" a Donald Trump. O desenho das ondas é bastante semelhante

Chin Zhao 20:49 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 24 de abril de 2025

A estrutura de ondas do par GBP/USD também se transformou em uma formação impulsiva de alta — "graças" a Donald Trump. O padrão é praticamente idêntico ao do EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 21:33 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 24 de abril de 2025

O padrão de onda no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD transformou-se em uma estrutura impulsiva ascendente. Acredito que há pouca dúvida de que essa transformação ocorreu exclusivamente devido

Chin Zhao 21:28 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 23 de abril de 2025

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD mudou para uma formação impulsiva de alta. É difícil imaginar que essa transformação tenha ocorrido por outro motivo além

Chin Zhao 20:30 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 23 de abril de 2025

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico do GBP/USD também passou a apresentar um formato impulsivo e altista — "graças" a Donald Trump. O padrão de ondas se assemelha fortemente

Chin Zhao 20:22 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 22 de abril de 2025

O padrão de ondas no gráfico do GBP/USD também se transformou em uma estrutura impulsiva de alta — tudo "graças" a Donald Trump. A formação é quase idêntica

Chin Zhao 20:43 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 17 de abril de 2025

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD passou a exibir uma formação impulsiva de alta. Não há dúvida de que essa transformação ocorreu exclusivamente em resposta

Chin Zhao 20:34 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 17 de abril de 2025

O par GBP/USD manteve-se estável na quinta-feira. Embora esse comportamento do mercado fosse em parte esperado para o dia, o que surpreendeu foi a ausência de queda na quarta-feira, considerando

Chin Zhao 20:25 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 16 de abril de 2025

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do par EUR/USD passou a exibir uma formação altista. É difícil negar que essa transformação tenha sido provocada, em grande parte

Chin Zhao 20:49 2025-04-16 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.