Forex Analysis & Reviews: 01.07.2021 - Overview of the US market...

01.07.2021 12:31 PM

Overview of the US market (07/01/2021)

US indices posted moderate growth on Wednesday, thanks to strong employment data from ADP. Dow Jones closed with a 0.6% gain, while S&P 500 increased by 0.2%. Meanwhile, Nasdaq fell 0.2%, perhaps due to investor concerns on tougher Fed policy.

ADP said jobs in the private sector increased by 692,000, which is much higher than the projections of analysts. Further data on the labor market, particularly on the weekly unemployment rate, will be released later today, while the report on Nonfarm payrolls is due out on Friday.

With regards to the Asian markets, opposite movements were observed in the indices. Japan showed a 0.4% drop, while China posted a 0.2% gain.

The oil market also continued to rally, but Brent failed again to rise above $75 and remains stuck around $ 74.60. Nevertheless, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stocks fell by another 6.8 million barrels, which is very good news.

OPEC is also scheduled to meet today to discuss future plans on oil production. This should help stabilize prices, as having a very high rate is dangerous not only for consumers, but also for suppliers.

In Europe, government officials announced that starting July 1, vaccination certificates will be required when crossing borders. Also, only vaccines approved by the EU will be allowed. This is obviously a response to another surge in infection rates in other countries. Apparently, COVID-19 cases have increased again due to the delta variant of the virus.

Latest reports say the total number of new coronavirus cases in the world is around 350,000 - 400,000, and is not decreasing further. UK has approximately 20,000, while US has 11,000.

Regarding economies, Germany reported that retail sales in the country slowed to 4.2% in May.

Going back to the markets, S&P 500 closed at 4.297 points yesterday and ranged from 4.260 - 4.340 points. All in all, the index posted a 14% growth since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, both Dow Jones and Nasdaq increased 13%.

This clearly means that the US economy is in good shape, and the Federal Reserve projects approximately 6-7% GDP growth by the end of the year. One of the main drivers is the boom in demand, especially in the real estate and construction markets. However, investors are worried that these sharp accelerations will set off very deep corrections in the market.

On the bright side, dollar also rose yesterday amid strong data on the US labor market. The USD index hit 92.44 points and ranged from 92.0 - 92.80 points.

Accordingly, USD/CAD also grew, bringing the quote to 1.2400. Its current range is 1.2340-1.2460. In case of a correction in the oil market, the pair will climb above 1.2500.

Conclusion: The US market is poised to continue gaining on strong recovery from the pandemic and clear vaccination successes. But high price levels could trigger a deep correction at any moment.

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