empty
07.11.2023 11:46 PM
RBA raises rates, dollar tries to regain initiative. Review of USD, NZD, AUD

After witnessing significant market movements in stocks and bonds last week, the start of this week has been relatively calm. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds became steady after retreating from the psychological level of 5%. The dollar is trying to regain the initiative, which may prove challenging given the unexpectedly weak economic reports and the market's confidence in the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle.

Supporting the notion of the end of the Fed's cycle is the fact that according to the October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS), over the third quarter, lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate loans, and remaining terms and conditions for each type of consumer loan remained basically unchanged, reducing the need for another rate hike.

Trade data from China for October have been mixed. Imports defied expectations with a 3.0% YoY increase against forecast of -4.8%, which may be seen as confirmation of a quick recovery in domestic demand. However, export figures have taken a sharper downturn than anticipated (-6.4% YoY, forecast -3.3%), as tightening financial conditions led to a reduction in global demand. China's import growth overall supports both the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Australian dollar (AUD).

Oil prices are trying to stabilize after a period of decline, as Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed it would continue with its additional voluntary cut of 1 million bpd in December. Given the threat of a global demand reduction, this decision doesn't come as a surprise.

NZD/USD

After the release of the quarterly labor market report earlier this week, there has been no noteworthy economic report from New Zealand. The country recently held elections, a new government is being formed, so some time will be dedicated to consultations between major political forces, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to await the results and refrain from taking any actions.

The New Zealand economy dropped back into contraction, with PMI indicators steadily decreasing for six consecutive months.

This image is no longer relevant

The RBNZ's expectations review will be published on Wednesday, which is important in terms of prospects for inflation. The RBNZ's previous actions haven't led to significant results, and inflation remains stable at high levels. If the RBNZ confirms this in the review, the market may perceive it as a hint that the rate hike could continue. This is good for the kiwi's exchange rate as it would support yield growth, but it's not favorable for the economy, which is already on the verge of recession. In any case, increased volatility is possible.

Speculative positioning for NZD has remained almost unchanged during the reporting week, with the net short position decreasing by just 4 million to -747 million. The price is below the long-term average, which suggests the possibility of further decline, although there is no strong trend at the moment.

This image is no longer relevant

NZD/USD continues to trade within a bearish channel with no signs of intent to break out of it. A week ago, we assumed that the downtrend would remain intact. Although it unexpectedly rose towards the middle of the channel last week, the pair failed to surpass the upper band of the channel. We expect the pair to trade within the bearish channel, with a possibility of another attempt to rise towards the upper band of the channel. To do so, it would need to update the local high of 0.6048 and consolidate above that level. In the long term, the kiwi continues to weaken, it will likely return to the support area of 0.5760/80.

AUD/USD

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the interest rate by a quarter of a point to 4.35%, as expected. The increase came after four consecutive holds in previous meetings and was largely forced due to the unexpected rise in inflation in the 3rd quarter. The RBA specifically noted that sustained services inflation increases the risk of price pressures becoming more persistent than expected.

However, the RBA's outlook on inflation was softer than before, as the accompanying statement no longer included the phrase regarding the possibility of further tightening. This is not a definitive end to the rate hike cycle, but it's evident that the RBA will refrain from taking steps in that direction in the coming months.

Markets reacted with a brief rise in the AUD exchange rate, which was short-lived, as the possible rate hike had already been priced in.

The net short AUD position decreased by 520 million during the reporting week, marking the most significant change among all G10 currencies, thereby, coming in at -4.76 billion. The bearish bias remains intact; however, over the past six weeks, there has been a trend toward reducing the number of short positions. The price is above the long-term average and pointing upwards.

This image is no longer relevant

AUD/USD managed to climb above the resistance area at 0.6430/50 as indicated the week before, and considering that the price is firmly moving upward, there is a possibility of further gains. In the long term, an attempt to reach the upper band of the channel at 0.6710/30 is likely, while it is less likely for the pair to return to the support area at 0.6270/90.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Chọn khung thời gian
5
phút
15
phút
30
phút
1
giờ
4
ngày
1
ngày
1
tuần
Kiếm lợi nhuận từ những biến đổi giá của tiền điện tử với InstaForex.
Tải MetaTrader 4 và mở giao dịch đầu tiên của bạn.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    THAM GIA CUỘC THI

Các bài báo được đề xuất

USD/CAD. Phân Tích và Dự Báo

Cặp USD/CAD đang có sự phục hồi nhẹ từ mức dưới 1.3600, hồi lại phần lớn những mất mát của ngày trước đó nhờ vào việc đồng

Irina Yanina 13:09 2025-06-13 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Phân Tích và Dự Báo

Cặp AUD/JPY đã trải qua áp lực bán ra trong ba ngày liên tiếp, chạm đáy thấp nhất trong gần hai tuần quanh mức 92.30 trong phiên

Irina Yanina 12:53 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Một cuộc tấn công bằng tên lửa của Israel vào Iran sẽ làm suy thoái thị trường toàn cầu (tôi kỳ vọng Bitcoin và #NDX sẽ tiếp tục giảm sau khi có sự điều chỉnh tăng nhẹ cục bộ)

Như tôi đã dự đoán, sự thiếu kết quả tích cực rộng rãi trong các cuộc đàm phán giữa Trung Quốc và Mỹ và áp lực lạm phát gia tăng

Pati Gani 10:10 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Lòng Tham Sẽ Không Mang Lại Lợi Ích Cho Thị Trường

Biết ít thì ngủ ngon hơn. Được khuyến khích bởi mức tăng 21% của S&P 500 từ mức thấp nhất hồi tháng Tư, đám đông tiếp tục mua xuống—hoàn toàn

Marek Petkovich 09:35 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Những Điều Cần Chú Ý Vào Ngày 13 Tháng 6? Phân Tích Các Sự Kiện Cơ Bản Dành Cho Người Mới Bắt Đầu

Một số báo cáo kinh tế vĩ mô được dự kiến công bố vào thứ Sáu, nhưng chúng tôi nghi ngờ rằng dữ liệu này sẽ ảnh hưởng đáng

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Tổng quan GBP/USD – Ngày 13 tháng 6: Tòa án không thể ngăn cản Donald Trump!

Cặp tiền tệ GBP/USD tiếp tục xu hướng tăng vào thứ Năm và suýt chạm mức cao nhất trong ba năm. Suốt phần lớn thời gian trong ngày

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Tổng quan về EUR/USD – Ngày 13 tháng 6: Kinh tế Mỹ gặp vận may

Cặp tiền tệ EUR/USD tiếp tục xu hướng tăng mạnh suốt ngày thứ Năm. Có ai vẫn còn thắc mắc tại sao đồng đô la Mỹ lại liên

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trump Gửi Đi "Những Lá Thư Hạnh Phúc"

Đã chưa đến hai tuần kể từ khi Donald Trump tăng thuế nhập khẩu thép và nhôm cho tất cả các quốc gia, ngoại trừ Vương quốc Anh. Trong

Chin Zhao 00:21 2025-06-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Đồng Bảng Yếu Nhưng Mạnh Hơn Đồng Đô La Yếu

Mặc dù nền kinh tế Anh đang chậm lại, nhưng vào thứ Năm, đồng bảng Anh đã đạt mức giá cao nhất trong ba năm qua so với đồng

Irina Manzenko 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Đồng Đô la Rút Khỏi Chiến Trường

Cái cũ trở thành mới một lần nữa. Từ "suy thoái" lại thịnh hành trong thị trường Forex và các thị trường tài chính khác. Chỉ số Giá tiêu dùng

Marek Petkovich 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.